Terrorism Situation Analysis - Preemptive Term Paper

In the event the intelligence detailed by the Israeli administration proves to be accurate with respect to nuclear weapons development, this office is reminded of the words of the late President John, F. Kennedy, spoken almost exactly 45 years ago to the day, on October 22, 1962, addressing the Soviet threat in Cuba:

We no longer live in a world where only the actual firing of weapons represents a sufficient challenge to a nation's security to constitute maximum peril. Nuclear weapons are so destructive and ballistic missiles are so swift that any substantially increased possibility of their use or any sudden change in their deployment may well be regarded as a definite threat to peace." (Sorensen, 1965)

Extraordinary risks to national security demand (and justify) extraordinary actions to prevent them from materializing. A military response will be required to participate with Israel in destroying Iranian nuclear facilities either in possession of or imminently capable of possessing bona-fide nuclear weapons. Since the Israeli weapons inventory does not include ordinance capable of penetrating and ensuring the destruction of hardened underground facilities, U.S. participation will be required. This office recommends that military analysts immediately begin the process of analyzing the capabilities of our most powerful conventional (non-nuclear) precision-guided ordinance to determine whether or not a nuclear strike of the nature proposed by Israel is necessary. If analysts determine that a nuclear strike is necessary to guarantee operational success, the magnitude of a failed (non-nuclear) strike makes that risk unacceptable. The harm to the international reputation and future ability of the U.S. To garner the cooperation abroad that our War on Terror requires, combined with Iranian reaction and the unification of Muslims who are presently moderates" rather than "extremists" within the global Jihad against this country, requires a nuclear first strike if that is necessary to guarantee operational success. In the event that the Israeli information is unable to be verified with respect to the advanced status of Iranian nuclear weapons production schedule, but corroborated with respect to their production of HEU or any other fissionable material, this office would recommend initiating operational planning for the joint preemptive strike proposed by Israel, but postpone its deployment pending the outcome of less drastic measures, both for the sake of Iranian civilians, as well as in the future international political interests of this nation. In that case, this office recommends that the President implement the recommendations of the Secretary of Defense with respect to infiltrating Iranian facilities to evaluate the relative risks, plan less damaging covert operations to disrupt production, and implement them as appropriate. This office would issue the same recommendation to determine, more precisely, the accuracy of the Israeli information, should our interviews of the subjects in IDF/Mossad custody prove inconclusive. Finally, this office does not consider long-term "deniability" of U.S. involvement, and does not recommend including that consideration in operational planning. In that regard, Muslim extremists already consider the U.S. To bear the responsibility for any Israeli military use of force. For this reason, the final respectful recommendation of this office is to dissuade Israel from any preemptive strike in the event our analyses determine that the information relied upon is inaccurate or the product of interrogation techniques that undermine its factual credibility.

References

Allison, G. (2004) Nuclear Terrorism: The Ultimate Preventable Catastrophe.

Henry Holt: New York

Dershowitz, a. (2002) Why Terrorism Works: Understanding the Threat,

Responding to the Challenge. Yale University Press: New Haven

Dershowitz, a. (2003) the Case for Israel. Wiley: New York

Larsen, R. (2007) Our Own Worst Enemy. Grand Central Publishing: New York.

Lozowick, Y. (2003) Right to Exist: A Moral Defense of Israel's Wars.

Doubleday: New York

Schwartz, S. (2002)

The Two faces of Islam: The House of Sa'ud from Tradition to Terror. Doubleday: New York

Sorensen, T. (1965) Kennedy. Harper & Row: New York

Williams, P. (2005) the Al Qaeda Connection: International Terrorism,

Organized Crime, and the Coming Apocalypse Prometheus: New York