Poll Data to Help Predict Outcome of 2012 Presidential Race Essay

Presidential Election Poll Data 2012

National Poll Data: 2012 Presidential Election

We are waist deep into election season. Now is the time for frantic fundraising, polling, and campaigning. Recent polls show a lot about the political beliefs and behavior of upcoming American voters. Analyzing poll results can help forecast the next president of the United States. After examining three polls in particular, a strong prediction can be made showing now President Barack Obama as the next likely president of the United States.

One ongoing poll helps paint a very detailed picture of how the two candidates are fairing within the American presidential race of 2012. This was a detailed poll that is continuously producing numbers base don interviewing registered voters. It is being conducted by Gallup Politics. Beginning in April 2012, representatives from Gallup Politics have asked registered voters "Suppose the presidential election were held today, if Barack Obama were the Democratic Party's presidential candidate and Mitt Romney were the Publican Party's candidate, who would you vote for" (Gallup Politics 2012). Thus, the poll is examining registered voters and their favoring of the two candidates. Moreover, the poll aims to clarify undecided voter information as well. According to the poll, "those who are undecided are further asked if they lean more toward Obama or Romney and their leanings are incorporated into the results" (Gallup Politics 2012). With a margin of error of +/- 2 points, it is clear that Obama has a steady lead. Obama is currently at 50%, while Romney sits behind him at 44%.

Secondly, a poll conducted by Election Projection aims to poll the Electoral College and how the Electors will vote this upcoming election. The poll breaks down what government officials' support, Obama, Romney, or Independent. Members of the House and Senate are polled further, showing divides between the Republican and Democratic support. The poll clearly shows that Obama holds the majority, with 347 Electors in his favor, with Romney trailing behind at a mere 191 Electors (Elliott 2012). Still, there is a projected change of 18 of Obama's supporters to switch to Romney. Yet, that is still clearly not enough to give Romney the lead. Obama also holds a lead in the Senate, but it is Romney who holds the majority in the House.

The third poll to be used in this analysis was conducted by USC Annenberg and the Los Angeles Times. This was a month long workshop, which interviewed nine undecided voters one month…